Final 2020 CIPA numbers just in...

Well, Canon did predict that 2020 was not going to be a good year but then Covid was unleashed on the world and it looks as if 2020 camera sales really took a beating. Japan Inc posted the biggest % loss since the introduction of the DSLR, over 45%. Also, DSLR sales continues it's sales slide with 8 consecutive loss years. On a more positive note, mirrorless sales though poor outsold DSLRs. For the stats, click here.

A quick peek into lens sales indicated that there too the market is not healthy with sales also about 1/2 of 2019 which was already a poor year. I gotta believe at some time one of the majors will have to bow out of the market. There is just not enough sales to support all the players currently there. Maybe it's time for Can-kon to become reality. Or maybe So-kon or So-non.

In 1997 there was enough business to keep many brands alive, and we are still above 1997 volumes. The difference is that companies were smaller, and specialty; but now so many are simply small parts of the bigger corporate cog...the big corportations might close or sell off their little sick brother.

BTW, that graph is still MISSING DECEMBER 2020 results, not Final...I had commented on Jan-Nov comparative data earlier (about a week ago)

In 1999 there were about 5,000 Thousand units, in 2019 there were 15,000 Thousand units, so even at 50% drop there would be about 7,500 Thousand units in 2020, still more than 1999 camera sales volume

Here ya go. Made my own chart.

Great illustration of the fact that mirrorless purchase volume still has not GROWN since its heyday in 2012!
dSLR has simply shrunk massively.

The under-50 does not buy cameras...the smartphone is too convenient. The over-50 group makes up a larger and large portion of those cameras which are sold. Japanese demographic analysis shows this fact clearly.

Thanks to member Dolina, final numbers for 2020 (includes December 2020)

Comparative data for units (Millions) shipped in 2019 and 2020

• dSLR: 4.51M (2019), 2.37M (2020)
  
• Mirrorless: 3.96M (2019), 2.93M (2020)
  

Wilt.. its cousin isn't faring bad, it is dying. Demand for mirrorless was hurt far less than demand for dslrs was. I really hope no one is expecting in 5 years from now to be able to find a new dslr to buy. I can't see anything on the horizon that is going to make dslrs competitive again. There is miles of free space with innovation in mirrorless, where as some of the could happen in dslrs, it far more limited.

Croasdail wrote in post #19190602
Wilt.. its cousin isn't faring bad, it is dying. Demand for mirrorless was hurt far less than demand for dslrs was. I really hope no one is expecting in 5 years from now to be able to find a new dslr to buy. I can't see anything on the horizon that is going to make dslrs competitive again. There is miles of free space with innovation in mirrorless, where as some of the could happen in dslrs, it far more limited.

I see mirrorless as early in its evolutionary process, overcoming its shortcomings and coming out with new stuff almost constantly with improvements to each new model...much like dSLR evolved in the early 2000's and there was a lot of 'chruning' of the market and sales simulated by the evoluion. Granted, a lot of the dSLR evolution is simply already incorporated into mirrorless, but there is still room for growth, for example:

• How much do we miss in the EVF because even cameras like the Sony Alpha 1 have 9,437,184 dots in the EVF, while the sensor captures 50 MPixels?!
  
• Can we improve upon artifacts introduced into capture by the readout of the sensor?
  
• Can we manage to do away with mechanical shutters which are required today for use of electronic flash?
  

But not that many even "in the day" had "real" cameras. Neither of my parents had anything more than instamatics. We did pass through a golden age of digital photography. Few back before that had "real" cameras. My grandfather had a rangefinder style camera.. not sure what camera it was.

So where is this all headed... who knows. I do know that when cameras on phones came out, I thought it was a joke..... now its my main carry around camera. 12 mpx isn't much, but its good enough for family memories. And if you look at the raw number of cameras out there, it has exploded! Everyone has a camera now. Even if they don't want one.

So yes, the demand curve for high end cameras is and will be forever bent downward. They simply aren't needed by most. And as you mention, things will continue to progress even faster. The A1 can use a flash with an e-shutter... but who uses flash much anymore outside of commercial applications. With near noise free images now possible at ISOs north of 32,000... natural light is pretty cool. And the read out on the A1 is fast enough to give you nearly universal like shutter performance and eliminates for the most part rolling shutter. Its a revolutionary camera the bends the limits, one I just can't justifying spending the money on.

You say mirrorless has drawbacks, but I contest dslrs are not way behind. The fact that I have focus peaking is huge... and zebra sniping - not more accidental over exposed highlights, or missed focuses. ( ok, dang bird photographers ill never be happy I now assume )...but its come a long way. Im looking forward to having electronically connected phones to cameras so that the benefits of computation photo capture can now be processed in my phone as I capture. Im finally getting to the point were I need to sell off the rest of my dslr stuff.. and simply move forward.

My point about mirrorless drawbacks is simply pointing out there is still room for 'technology churning' in mirrorless, even if the dSLR is largely reached technology maturity (yes, dSLR sensors can still improve...but those improvements can also apply to mirrorless). Given the fact that mirrorless technology churning has kept it alive but constant in unit numbers for 8 years, once the technology churning comes to a halt because all the technology has gone pretty much as far as it can, mirrorless units will drop, too. "Oh, I better sell my A9 and buy an Alpha 1" will no longer sustain mirrorless annual unit counts. So total cameras may fall to 1980 volume, maybe less.

Gotcha..... must admit, I was part of that... I think over the last 20 years I bought 10D, 20D, 50D, 7D, 1D mk IIn..... more than I should admit. Meanwhile over the same period of time, total 5 PCs - 2 desktops and 3 laptops.... last one I bought was back in 2014. They got good enough that I stopped upgrading... to your point.

Croasdail wrote in post #19190824
Gotcha..... must admit, I was part of that... I think over the last 20 years I bought 10D, 20D, 50D, 7D, 1D mk IIn..... more than I should admit. Meanwhile over the same period of time, total 5 PCs - 2 desktops and 3 laptops.... last one I bought was back in 2014. They got good enough that I stopped upgrading... to your point.

I did my part in participation in the technology churn. 20D, 30D, 5D, 40D, 7DII...but by buying used, I helped others to buy up all the time! I am content to wait out most of the churn of mirrorless, and buy only after the churning slows (if at all). Whether you buy new or used, the churn costs at each step. For many years there was 30% compounded market value loss with each new dSLR of a particular type. The 1Ds was $8000 new, and worth only $1000 four years later!

Wilt wrote in post #19190849
I did my part in participation in the technology churn. 20D, 30D, 5D, 40D, 7DII...but by buying used, I helped others to buy up all the time! I am content to wait out most of the churn of mirrorless, and buy only after the churning slows (if at all). Whether you buy new or used, the churn costs at each step. For many years there was 30% compounded market value loss with each new dSLR of a particular type. The 1Ds was $8000 new, and worth only $1000 four years later!

Croasdail wrote in post #19190824
Gotcha..... must admit, I was part of that... I think over the last 20 years I bought 10D, 20D, 50D, 7D, 1D mk IIn..... more than I should admit. Meanwhile over the same period of time, total 5 PCs - 2 desktops and 3 laptops.... last one I bought was back in 2014. They got good enough that I stopped upgrading... to your point.

I followed a similar path 300D->350D->450D->40D->50D->7D and throw in the 5D->5DII->5DIV. However, I always bought new just at the point the bodies went on sale, then sold in less than a year. I don't remember all of the numbers but I do remember that the 300D to 350D upgrade cost me $50 out of pocket and the 350->450 was $80. I figured for $50, why not upgrade? The others were not so cheap, but not more than $150 either.