Is the DSLR going extinct?

gjl711 wrote in post #19431734
Extinct is such a loaded word. Of course the DSLR will be around for a while, but as a product the asteroid has hit and it's just a matter of time before it joins the ranks of other camera technologies which were replaced by newer tech.

2021 was a horrible year for cameras in general and the dSLR especially. But if you look at 2022, the mirrorless cameras are holding on with a slight gain from 2021 but the dSLRs are continuing their slide. August numbers just came out and and SLRs are down 332K from Aug. 2021 (1.17m) while mirrorless are up 427k from Aug 2021 (2.49m). It's better seen when you look at a 2 year trend line graph. Below is a snap from CIPA data for 2022 and 2022. The top line is mirrorless and the bottom SLR. I suspect at some point the SLR slide will flatten a bit but if manufacturers no longer put out any new bodies, it's only going to go down.

Hosted photo: posted by gjl711 in
./showthread.php?p=194​31734&i=i224100285
forum: The Lounge

Good analogy.

Seems simple to me. If manufacturers stop making DSLRs, eventually very few people will be using them. It won't even be the same situation as with film, which is at least a distinctly different process with its own panache. Continuing to use DSLRs after 2030 will be more like someone continuing to use an Exakta after 1970.

Wilt wrote in post #19502936
I believe that there was an inherent demand for cameras by a core group, and this was reflected in the SLR sales volume in the 1990s. Then the dSLR came out, and repeat buying by digital camera adopters occurred with subsequent generations of cameras going launched. That market churning induced by technology evolution has ceased, and mirrorless and dSLR volumes have plummeted...back to the volumes seen in the 1990's SLR volumes.

Do you have a source of what SLR sales were before 2000? THis has been debated here at POTN several times but I've never seen anything as definitive as CIPA data for digital cameras.

gjl711 wrote in post #19503058
Someone's still making a few. A quick peek at CIPA data shows that there have been 142,900 manufactured in Jan and Feb 2023. Not a lot, but not yet zero.

Thanks. I figured it is possible some are being made but I was not sure. That will be short lived.

As far as rolling shutter I wouldn't need ES if Canon actually does this. 15 fps is plenty for me.

https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=zBaxtfjbFqI

gjl711 wrote in post #19503061
Do you have a source of what SLR sales were before 2000? THis has been debated here at POTN several times but I've never seen anything as definitive as CIPA data for digital cameras.

https://www.dpreview.c​om …era-sales-lower-than-ever

The 2015 population size (7.4 Billion) is 42% greater than 1989 (5.2 Billion) , yet the 2015 camera volume (excluding smartphones) is smaller than 1989 (which unfortunately does not break down market share P&S vs SLR, etc.)

This chart shows what has happened between 2015 and 2019
https://www.statista.c​om …digital-camera-shipments/

Wilt wrote in post #19503145
https://www.dpreview.c​om …era-sales-lower-than-ever

The 2015 population size (7.4 Billion) is 42% greater than 1989 (5.2 Billion) , yet the 2015 camera volume (excluding smartphones) is smaller than 1989 (which unfortunately does not break down market share P&S vs SLR, etc.)

This chart shows what has happened between 2015 and 2019
https://www.statista.c​om …digital-camera-shipments/

This is the same issue as earlier. It doesn't really show what SLR sales were pre-2000. CIPA does great for digital but we really don't know what it was back in the analog days. Also, pre-2000 there were many other players besides just what was coming from Japan which CIPA does not cover.

Also sales numbers don’t equate to production numbers. There could very well be a back log of units that are sold a year or two after manufacturing ends.

TeamSpeed wrote in post #19503320
Also sales numbers don’t equate to production numbers. There could very well be a back log of units that are sold a year or two after manufacturing ends.

I think that's why CIPA data uses both manufacturing and shipping numbers. THey track both. They do not track sales numbers.

gjl711 wrote in post #19503326
I think that's why CIPA data uses both manufacturing and shipping numbers. THey track both. They do not track sales numbers.

The lack of sales figures is understandable.

• Canon Japan uses subsidiaries in major areas to distribute units to retailers, and it uses authorized independent distributors to distribute to retailers not within subsidiary areas. Canon Japan cannot know how many units are still in the possession of distributors who are not subsidiaries, and
  
• none of them (subsidiares or independent distributors) know how many units are sitting on retail store shelves vs. those in the posession of end buyers
  

dolina wrote in post #19432154

Really interesting

Not yet.

POST 19505820

TOKYO, April 13, 2023－RICOH IMAGING COMPANY, LTD. is pleased to announce the launch of the PENTAX K-3 Mark III Monochrome camera, exclusively designed to capture monochromatic (black-and-white) images.

Choderboy wrote in post #19505852
Not yet.

POST 19505820

TOKYO, April 13, 2023－RICOH IMAGING COMPANY, LTD. is pleased to announce the launch of the PENTAX K-3 Mark III Monochrome camera, exclusively designed to capture monochromatic (black-and-white) images.

A specialty camera. Not surprising.

Choderboy wrote in post #19505852
Not yet.

POST 19505820

TOKYO, April 13, 2023－RICOH IMAGING COMPANY, LTD. is pleased to announce the launch of the PENTAX K-3 Mark III Monochrome camera, exclusively designed to capture monochromatic (black-and-white) images.

Yeah, that should turn things around.

While I own a ML camera and use it most of the time, the DSLR are still a good tool. I shot 80% of a recent track meet with my T8i just for the heck of it and it did fine. Is the R6 even better in regards to focus and tracking? Yes but the Rebel can still deliver good results. I think it just comes down to use what you are happy with. Is the future mirrorless? I think that is very likely the case.

That is odd that they would even do this... with so much software in a camera, it isn't that difficult to conceive adding more to firmware to introduce a myriad of B&W profiles that can be selected by any existing camera. I guess I fail to see what this niche camera is going to even serve? I would rather have 10 different B&W picture styles where I can tweak settings by color channel, by shadows/highlights, etc to create custom B&W profiles to use on a shoot, so that I get OOC JPG ready to go.