-sigh- Photokina 2006 prediction?

Hi guys,

I feel like giving myself an uppercut just for starting this thread - I really hate these kind of "prediction" threads, because nobody has a crystal ball ... but I really need some advice.

Anyway, here's my situation ... please bear with me.

I picked up a 5D during the week, and from the few pics I've had the chance to take so far, I'm very impressed. I also have a 20D which I plan to keep as a second body. I have a reasonably varied set of photography interests - I like landscapes and people photography (for which I'll use the 5D) as well as wildlife, and I'm really starting to get into birding (for which I'll use the 20D). I'd class myself as an extremely enthusiastic amateur.

Here comes the spanner in the works. I have an opportunity to upgrade the 20D to a new 1DmkIIn for an extremely good price - and I do mean extremely good. Although I'd lose some effective reach, I have no doubt the 1DmkIIn body would be better for my wildlife photography than my 20D. The AF system and weather sealing are what really attract me, and of course the framerate would be great for any fast moving furry or feathered subjects. I think a 1DmkIIn and a 5D would be pretty much the perfect combination for me at the moment, although I do wonder if the 8MP of the 1DmkIIn would be a limitation.

BUT, I have this nagging voice in the back of my head telling me to wait and see what happens at Photokina in September. I have read predictions in some "other forums" of a fullframe 8fps body for ~ $US5000, which is significantly cheaper than the current 1DsmkII - and could have replaced both my 5D and this potential 1DmkIIn - and that would annoy me somewhat. Could this be the fabled "merged" 1DmkIIn and 1DsmkII? Could it be something different? Could it be nothing more than a rumour (well, I already know the answer to that one).

So, does anyone at all have any feeling about what might be coming up later this year at Photokina? I know, I know, it could only be conjecture, but any hints would be greatly appreciated

as long as it has better A1SERVO than whats curently out i will buy it .
Rob

We went through this last fall with what eventually proved to be the 30D.

Two facts to keep in mind:
A) The people who are talking, don't know.
B) The people who know, aren't talking.

It was pointed out several times last year, that the few people who are seen online, who are Canon-connected enough to maybe know, can't/won't talk about unreleased projects because it could cost them their jobs.

So the rest of it, is all rumor, hearsay, vague guesses and hope.

Buy what you need or want now, and start taking pictures now. IF, and only if, something comes up later, then consider upgrading.

Doc.

If you have a chance to pick up a 1D MkIIN for a good price, then do it. There's always going to be something better on the horizon in terms of DSLR's.

This kind of guess work/what's coming/crystal ball type thread should be in the 'rumour' section ... yes?

I have a crystal ball in my basement

Reports are (Pop. Photo, for one) that Canon's planning on their big line revision in 2007. You'll get at least 6-8 months out of anything you get now before something "better" comes along. And will it make any meaningful differences in your output even then?

If it helps any consider that the 1DsMkII still has a long way to drop to get below $5000 which is where it would have to be for your about $5000 prediction. The 1Ds (Mk one) is just now starting to break the $5000 price. How old is that one and it is has less pixels then a 5D?

If the new camera is just a 1DsMkII"N-model" then it may make about $5000 before the end of this year (2006).

If it is a 22MP 8FPS camera as is hoped by many then it is unlikely to make that price break. It may be under $7000 but I doubt it will be under $5000. It could even be higher.
There is also a possibility they may release two different versions.

As to the New-series - from what little I have gathered it will be more a combination of improved lenses and improved dynamic range capabilties to the camera sensors then other improvements. I do hope it is not a new lens mount, If I keep hearing those kinds of rumurs with some realibiIity behind them I won't bother buying my upgrade this fall (presuming one shows up).

Just my opinion,

How much further can canon do?8 mega pixel is nice, but... An amateurs computer wont be fast enough to down load the pics from the card lol. Canon's Mark IIN is genius with the 8.5fps, but if I remember right, they did have a 9 or 10 fps body in film. I just wish they would make th enoise even less ( yes I know it's still great though). but importantly the flash sync needs to be higher!!

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

This is generally my philosophy - there's always something new about to come out ... and I think it makes a lot of sense to "live for the day". Hmmm

I just wish I could kick this nagging voice that keeps suggesting that later this year there might be a single body that'll do what a 5D and 1DmkIIn combined can do, and at possibly a higher resolution, for much the same money as I'd be paying for the two bodies.


Cheers,
Mat.

For wildlife photog the 1dMkII against the 20D is a no brainer and if you are getting it for a good price then even more so. 1 bodies will always attract second hand buyers so hold their value better than the prosumer models.

I have a 1DMkII and a 5D and to my mind it is a perfect combination. FF high mp for landscapes and portraits and high speed accurate AF for sports and wildlife.

I don't think the 5D nor the IIN are scheduled for replacement as they just came out last August.
If I could, I'd go with the 5D and N combo. As a matter of fact, in about a year or so, that's what I"ll probably do.