Prognosis for cropped image cameras?

I find the 1.3x crop on the 1D Mk2 just about right, still wide with a 17mm lens on and long enough at the telephoto end. I take my S80 when I'm not using the 1D

If you look at the trend in technology, it has been providing more functionality in a smaller package with better quality. Thus, I believe that full frame will eventually go away, at least for the main stream photographers. The advantage that full frame has today is lower signal to noise and a large professional installed base comfortable with the format so there is a plethora of equipment out there. But solve the S/N problem then the advantage that full frame has is just not that big anymore.
Secondly, I believe that the P/S camp will be driving the next set of major innovations for one reason, market size. For every engineer working on pushing DSLR technology, there have to be hundreds working on P/S cameras. We kind of see that in Canon’s latest release of Digic III with features squarely targeted to P/S market but will most likely never make it into a DSLR camera. The P/S guys have been making great advances over the last 5 years while the SLR guys have been polishing an already good product with just a few new features but mostly lower noise and more pixels. Clearly the gap has narrowed significantly and if we project that out 5 years could it be that the P/S guys have higher quality and more features than a DSLR?
I have had some SLR pretty much my whole adult life starting with the A1 but my bottom line is still the quality of the captured image and flexibility of the tool. If someone today offered 1D quality and feature set, and put that in a camera the size of a cell phone, I’m standing in line for mine

dfjames wrote in post #2257063
I Know this a Canon forum but what other manufacturers are selling full frame DSLR? surely that's an indication that the cropped format will be around for some time.

None! For a moment in time Kodak offered a FF sensor camera to the professional market, based upon a Nikon chassis, but that is off the market.

Crop cameras with high pixel density would give more reach for birders. I think even if the mainstream cameras are full frame, there is still a market for croppers for people who need long long reach.

I predict APS-C will be around for at least 10 years. Which is a huge amount of time for anything electronic. The full frame size is not based on anything other than what the film market was used to, there really isn't an inherent advantage. The next sensor size could easily be a .5 crop (larger than full frame).

This may seem like a silly question but can I use my 580EX flash on my old Canon rebel film camera? Never tried.

• Cropped cameras - no end in sight. As mentioned, no other manufacturer has one on the market at the moment, so there is no competition for Canon in the full frame market. Olympus and Panasonic are firmly entrenched in the crop format market, Ni*on has stated that they have no plans to go full frame, so who does that leave - Sony and Pentax? I don't think they will be leading the charge.
  
• P&S - I have a G3 that I keep in the car. I am toying with the idea of getting an A-series or a G7. It is sometimes nice to have a quality camera that doesn't require a big bag to lug it around in. I have also seen some policies at performance venues that specifically prohibit cameras with removeable lenses, so that adds to the urge to get a G7 to replace the G3.
  
• Film camera - As I type this I am looking at an F1 with a Canon Auto Bellows and a Servo-EE finder, which is serving as an interesting desk toy on my desk. FD-compatible gear is ridiculously cheap nowadays, so I made something decorative out of a rig that I used to only wish I could afford.

CoolToolGuy wrote in post #2258344
...

• P&S - I have a G3 that I keep in the car. I am toying with the idea of getting an A-series or a G7. It is sometimes nice to have a quality camera that doesn't require a big bag to lug it around in. I have also seen some policies at performance venues that specifically prohibit cameras with removeable lenses, so that adds to the urge to get a G7 to replace the G3.

Have Fun,

I do the same with my Nikon 8700. As long as I work within the parameters of the camera by keeping the ISO below 100 and keeping the subject bright so that the speed stays above 1/30, it does a great job. I always pop it in my sweatshirt when my wife and I go for our walk in the woods. Ya never know what your going to run into and the XP with a 300 is just to much to carry ever day.

EF-S cameras are as permanent as any format. They currently outsell full frame by a large margin and are not going away. Like 35 mm cameras were for film, they are the best compromise between quality, cost and convenience for the majority of DSLR users. Image quality already is as good as 35 mm film for colour prints and is only going to improve as technology advances.

Full frame DSLRs are also likely to be a permanent fixture, replacing the medium format film cameras in that smaller, but important niche market. It will be interesting to see whether Canon finds any competitors in this market. At present it does not appear the market if big enough for other manufacturers to bother.

The endangered format is the 1.3 crop of the 1D series cameras. This format could easily be displaced by better and faster cameras in both EF-S and FF lines.

True, but the crop is irrelevant, it's the high pixel density that gives more reach, at least until you hit the resolution limit of the lens. The crop doesn't increase resolution any more than the cardboard tube from inside a roll of paper towels serves as a telescope.

We tend to mix these things together, because current crop sensors are denser than some other full-frame sensors, but if we're talking "future stuff", we have to keep these straight.

Somebody else mentioned that "crop sensors have advantages". The sole advantage is that it's cheaper, there are zero technical advantages to a crop sensor. It would be impossible, as a full-frame sensor has a crop sensor in the middle of it. Again, though, there is sometimes value to denser sensors.

All that said, there are really limited drivers to making full-frame sensors drop precipitously in price, so I don't see 1.6x disappearing any time soon.

Similarly, though, digital cameras are interesting because they pair up modern electronics with age-old polished glass lenses, and there are some simple laws of physics that preclude cameras from all shrinking down to tiny proportions like cell phones have. In particular, we'd need things like super-fast, but super-small lenses to provide the ability to derive shallow depth of field. I don't know what issues exist with creating such lenses, but I do know that no widely marketed cameras seem to have such lenses today. Also, there are human useability issues as cameras get too small.
-harry

It's funny that some think that all DSLR cameras will one day be full frame !
They obviously aren't looking with both eyes open -

-Time and time again the experts (including canon themselves!) have stated that full frame sensors are not going to drop in price by any significant amount.The oft quoted Moore's law has NOTHING to do with camera sensor chips.
1.6 crop sensors will ALLWAYS be at least 10 times cheaper than FF sensors simply because that's how many more fit on a wafer.
-Look around at what owners are saying.The only ones wanting full frame are those that absolutally need it (not many!) and those that THINK they want it.
When one looks at the benifits of FF -Better viewfinder,less DOF and slightly better low light performance -it's no surprise most peoplke are admiting they don't need it.
-All the major brands now have 1.5/1.6 crop bodies and are selling them by the millions.The average enthusiast DSLR buyer has no great desire for full frame and very few ever will
-The canon 5D has been selling very slowly,even at greatly discounted prices

ron chappel wrote in post #2259403
-The canon 5D has been selling very slowly,even at greatly discounted prices

But even at the discounted price it still costs twice as much as a 30D, which is WAY more than most can afford.

So, hopefully the price will drop even more since, while I like my 20D, I'm not entirely satisfied with it. Maybe it's my eyesight, but I prefer the brighter viewfinder I am used to with a film SLR, and the dynamic range of the 20D isn't all that impressive IMO.

I don't need a lot of reach as 150mm was the longest lens I've typically used with film prior to getting my 70-200. And I don't shoot sports, so I could care less about frame rate.

dfjames wrote in post #2257063
I Know this a Canon forum but what other manufacturers are selling full frame DSLR? surely that's an indication that the cropped format will be around for some time.

kodak and alot of german companies.

Also I use a canon a2e for film. Cheap body to pick up, 5 fps and decently fast focusing.

kodak and alot of german companies??????????
For a moment in time Kodak offered a FF sensor camera to the professional market, based upon a Nikon chassis, but that is off the market.
German companies???
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I had a list somewhere...

http://en.wikipedia.or​g/wiki/Full_frame_digi​tal_SLR

I know theres more out there.