PMA 2009 speculations

Facts off first

The PMA next year is held March 3-5, Las Vegas.

A note: this is pure speculation from a Canon user who follows news, announcements and rumors closely. I don't claim to have any insider information whatsoever. If you are looking for juicy info from "a friend of mine at Canon", or "a sports photog told me", this ain't the thread I'm afraid.

What can we expect from Canon at PMA 2009?

Historically, the trend for Canon is to announce ONE new body at PMA events. Previously, they announced:
2008: 450D
2007: 1D Mark III
2006: 30D
2005: 350D
2004: 1D Mark II
2003: 10D

Canon currently has six DSLR tiers, the latest models in each are:
1000D
450D
50D
5D Mark II
1D Mark III
1Ds Mark III

Let's look at the possibilities:

The 50D and the 5D Mark II have just got announced, nothing new is going to happen here.

The 1000D was announced in June, it's likely we'll see an upgrade in 2009, but PMA seems too early.

The 1Ds Mark III will be 18 months old at PMA, I think an upgrade this early is unlikely, especially that there are better candidates.

The 1D Mark III will be 24 months old at PMA. Given its well documented problems with AI Servo, and the success of the Nikon D3 in the sports community, it's possible Canon might give it an earlier upgrade than the initially planned cycle. Possible upgrades would be: a new sensor based on the tech used in the 50D and the 5D Mark II with a megapixel bump, DIGIC IV, HD movie mode, working AF this time and a better LCD. Whether this camera would be called a 1D Mark IV or 1D Mark III N depends on the number of upgrades, I think a new sensor would definitely warrant a new Mark number (as in the case of the 1D Mark II N, it retained the sensor and the shooting speed of its predecessor).

The 450D will be 12 months old at PMA. Historically, this line had upgrades every 18 months, however, Canon broke this pattern with the 50D this year, so it is possible they would change this line to a 12 month cycle. The 500D would counter Nikon's D90 (which I expect to sell just as well as the D80 did), and Sony's possible upgrades to the A300 or the A350. Just as the Nikon D90 has it, I fully expect Sony to put HD movie mode in at least one of these cameras (Sony being a major player in the film business this looks like a natural move). The 500D would then have the latest sensor technology with a megapixel bump to 15 MP, DIGIC IV, VGA LCD and the movie mode of course.

Apart from the six current lines of DSLR bodies, there's always a possibility of Canon opening up a 7th tier. One much talked about camera would be the 3D, which would have a more professional AF than the 5D Mark II, and a higher framerate. Personally I think this is just wishful thinking at the moment, and even if it might happen eventually, I don't expect Canon to announce such a camera at this year's PMA.

As for my wrapup, this post would not be complete without a proper prediction for next year, this is what I expect (just don't quote me on it)

January/PMA: 500D
Summer: 2000D
Autumn: 1D Mark IV

Lenses?
I really have no idea. The lens division is notoriously hard to predict. Every year the usual suspects are wound up (you know: 24-70L IS, 100-400L IS upgrade, 400/5.6L IS etc.) and Canon have ignored these so far, so it's anyone's guess really.

Here's to hoping that the new 1D is announced at PMA. Your analysis sounds reasonable, and I agree that the next bodies they need to refresh are the lower end XXXD and the 1D.

Not sure that they'd call it the Mark IV though. 4 is an unlucky number at least in Chinese, as it is pronounced the same as the word for death. Looking at previous Canon cameras, the G series skipped from G3 to G5, and the Sx IS series similarly went from S3 IS to S5 IS. Whether they keep up with that no-4's numbering scheme using roman numerals remains to be seen. Maybe it'll be the 1D Mark V. Or IIIn.

Someone somewhere needs to announce a new sensor technology and I sure hope it's Canon. I was really hoping that the new 5D was going to be it but clearly that did not happen so I'm speculating that a new 1D MkIII whether it's called the four or something else will happen and will have a new sensor technology. Also, this new Panasonic Lumix camera looks very interesting. and small. I'm guessing that Canon too will once again follow and upgrade the 1000D to make it smaller and differentiate itself more from the xxxD line of cameras.

That's a fairly reasonable analysis. You've actually used logic, who would've though that'd be possible on these forums!

I think you could be right in that PMA will bring a 500D.
And a bunch of new IXUS', a few printers, and a new calculator.

I'm a pessimist when it comes to Canon, so we'll probably see the 1D IV later on in the year, as you suggested.

I think you've got it quite right.

However, since 2008 was a body-heavy year, maybe we'll see some new glass in '09?

gjl711 wrote in post #6342592
Someone somewhere needs to announce a new sensor technology and I sure hope it's Canon. I was really hoping that the new 5D was going to be it but clearly that did not happen so I'm speculating that a new 1D MkIII whether it's called the four or something else will happen and will have a new sensor technology.

It looks like Fuji wins the prize this year. . .

http://www.dpreview.co​m …9/08092210fujif​ilmEXR.asp

Have Fun,

CoolToolGuy wrote in post #6358411
It looks like Fuji wins the prize this year. . .

http://www.dpreview.co​m …9/08092210fujif​ilmEXR.asp

Have Fun,

Hmm.. Very interesting technology. Looks like Fuji is the only player on the block really doing anything quality wise. It will be interesting to see where the technology goes.

I just want a 2000 dollar body with movie mode. New 5D cost to much, 50D is 1400 with no movie mode. Maybe 500D will be out by then.

I wonder if the 500D will have a VGA LCD or a 461k dot LCD like in the G10...

I'm planing to buy a DSLR...maybe 500D

I hope some new lenses.

Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough, just give the camera some special features like MOVIE MODE and a upgrade AF system, etc!

MLphoto wrote in post #6825810
I hope some new lenses.

100-400 replacement. Like to see a constant f/4 and an updated IS. That would rock.

MLphoto wrote in post #6825860
Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough, just give the camera some special features like MOVIE MODE and a upgrade AF system, etc!

This depends on your need since I need the 17-21MP....

I love my 5D mark II , but for sure, I need to renew a lot of my lens. and when I see PMA rumors, I wonder if I shouldn't wait to buy some equivalent to 24-105 L
for now, I have to order new lenses from Sigma as they seem to have better price and new ones like 24-70 2.8 USM-Like