It seems this discussion is getting too focused on the three inputs that control exposure and losing sight of what one is trying to accomplish when "dragging" the shutter.
The OP suggests that the desire is to underexpose the background 2 stops. So, if that means ISO 400, F5.6 at 1/200 then setting the flash power/distance to provide F5.6 will mean the subject is under exposed as well. So, the only thing that can be done to get the subject exposed properly i.e. two stops brighter, is to move the speedlite closer or increase its power.
Now, going to the image I posed, I wanted to get the surf sharp, and also to have the background reasonably well exposed. That meant finding an exposure that would reasonably expose the scene. 3.2 sec at F5.6 at ISO 1600. The next step was to find a power setting for the strobe that would properly expose the surf. That turned out to be 40Ws with an 8.5" reflector at 30 feet.
The key to "dragging" the shutter or any other approach to combining strobe and ambient light is to determine what is the primary exposure consideration. Then adjusting the other light source based on the exposure determined for the first light source and its relationship to proper exposure.


